Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hassoun says Wednesday’s US CPI is expected to show September headline inflation accelerating to about 3.7% YoY, driven by higher energy, while core CPI is seen near 2.5% YoY. The divergence matters for the Fed, which hiked in September and now faces the task of reducing inflation without unduly slowing growth; markets price roughly an 80% chance of a Fed hold in October. A softer-than-expected core print could reinforce the pause and relieve stocks and

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hassoun says Wednesday’s US CPI is expected to show September headline inflation accelerating to about 3.7% YoY, driven by higher energy, while core CPI is seen near 2.5% YoY. The divergence matters for the Fed, which hiked in September and now faces the task of reducing inflation without unduly slowing growth; markets price roughly an 80% chance of a Fed hold in October. A softer-than-expected core print could reinforce the pause and relieve stocks and bonds; a stronger core print could push yields higher and weigh on risk assets.