据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社：伊朗前外长、现任议员穆塔基表示，特朗普的失败就是美国霸权的失败。如果未来一周油轮通行量降至零，油价将从每桶110美元升至140美元。这将成为特朗普的噩梦，其影响会迅速在欧洲显现，并直接影响美国大选结果。

On the 18th at midday local time Houthi forces published footage they say shows an AH-6i helicopter shot down in Saudi NAJRAN province on the Saudi-Yemen border in the early hours. A Saudi-led coalition spokesman, Turki al-Maliki, said on social media the AH-6i crashed in NAJRAN due to a technical fault, killing two crew members.

CITIC Securities says US Sep CPI YoY 3.7% and PPI YoY 6.3% exceeded expectations but long-end Treasury moves faded within 24 hours. After Oct 14 CPI the 10‑yr yield jumped ~13bp to 5.325% then reversed to close lower; after Oct 15 PPI the 10‑yr rose only ~2.5bp, the 30‑yr fell, and the 10‑yr quickly dropped to about 5.048%. The firm judges market pricing of inflation is rapidly waning and the long-end pricing anchor has rotated decisively toward a growth/AI cycle — the priced “recession” is primarily tail risk from a downcycle in AI capex rather than a conventional demand slump, and can coexist with stagflation. Current moves are left-side tentative pricing, not a confirmed trend. Near term, US equities may see continued sector rotation as flows shift from AI into energy, defensive consumer staples and healthcare (which could benefit if Democratic sweep expectations firm). Hong Kong stocks could benefit from a reversal in overseas AI-hardware flows and potential MSCI EM exclusion of Indonesia prompting reallocations.