China's Ministry of Finance said it will conduct bond market-making support operations in October to boost secondary market liquidity and ensure the government bond yield curve more accurately reflects supply and demand.

CITIC Securities says US Sep CPI YoY 3.7% and PPI YoY 6.3% exceeded expectations but long-end Treasury moves faded within 24 hours. After Oct 14 CPI the 10‑yr yield jumped ~13bp to 5.325% then reversed to close lower; after Oct 15 PPI the 10‑yr rose only ~2.5bp, the 30‑yr fell, and the 10‑yr quickly dropped to about 5.048%. The firm judges market pricing of inflation is rapidly waning and the long-end pricing anchor has rotated decisively toward a growth/AI cycle — the priced “recession” is primarily tail risk from a downcycle in AI capex rather than a conventional demand slump, and can coexist with stagflation. Current moves are left-side tentative pricing, not a confirmed trend. Near term, US equities may see continued sector rotation as flows shift from AI into energy, defensive consumer staples and healthcare (which could benefit if Democratic sweep expectations firm). Hong Kong stocks could benefit from a reversal in overseas AI-hardware flows and potential MSCI EM exclusion of Indonesia prompting reallocations.

CITIC Securities research note: The recent correction in China’s AI core names, in both magnitude and duration, now parallels the new‑energy core pullback from late‑2021 to April‑2022. The first round of hardware valuation re‑rating amid a downshift in the super‑cycle’s acceleration (second derivative) appears close to completion. For long‑term investors focused on AI’s growth rate (first derivative) rather than its acceleration, the current adjustment is insufficient to alter the trend. Memory prices, GPU rental rates and CSPs’ (cloud service providers’) profit margins are the key variables to watch for direction of underlying AI demand.