China Q3 GDP rose 4.5% YoY. Shenwan Hongyuan chief economist Zhao Wei said the
domestic economy will undergo an N-shaped recovery, with Q4 likely characterised
by sustained strong exports and marginal domestic-demand repair. September data
showed marginal improvement in both external and domestic demand; overall growth
is expected to drift modestly higher in Q4. Exports: short-term China‑EU trade
disruption is limited; an AI-led capex cycle and a rebound in US imports should
support continued high export growth. Investment: developer financing stress
will likely continue to weigh on property investment, but faster implementation
of existing domestic policy and earlier profit gains should provide lagged
support, leaving overall investment on a recovery path in Q4. Consumption:
household spending should continue a modest rebound and remain broadly stable.
