UBS cut CATL’s target price to HK$730 and trimmed 2026–28 net profit forecasts
by 11–14% to RMB90–131 billion, while keeping a Buy rating. UBS reported CATL’s
Q3 net profit at RMB21.2 billion (+15% YoY, -6% QoQ), about 10% below buy-side
estimates; shipments exceeded 260 GWh (EV batteries ~75%, energy storage ~25%).
UBS calculated unit profit fell to RMB82/kWh, a record low, citing quarterly
product-mix swings, more low-value projects, a consumption tax on lithium-ion
batteries effective Sept. 1, and a cut in export VAT rebate from 9% to 6%.
Management reiterated confidence in 20–30% industry growth by 2027.
