Eamonn Sheridan says Japan's September underlying inflation accelerated. Despite government fuel subsidies, goods and services price gains widened. Core CPI ex‑fresh food but including fuel rose 2.1% YoY (in line); core CPI ex‑fresh food and fuel — the BOJ's preferred gauge — climbed from 1.9% to 2.4% YoY. Goods inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.6% and services inflation to 1.5% from 1.2%, signalling firms are passing higher wages to customers. Rising fuel costs tied to the prolonged Middle East con

Eamonn Sheridan says Japan's September underlying inflation accelerated. Despite government fuel subsidies, goods and services price gains widened. Core CPI ex‑fresh food but including fuel rose 2.1% YoY (in line); core CPI ex‑fresh food and fuel — the BOJ's preferred gauge — climbed from 1.9% to 2.4% YoY. Goods inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.6% and services inflation to 1.5% from 1.2%, signalling firms are passing higher wages to customers. Rising fuel costs tied to the prolonged Middle East conflict, yen weakness lifting import prices, and robust AI‑related demand have bluntly undermined the subsidy effect. The print reinforces market bets on a BOJ hike in December and shifts attention to how high policy rates could go; BOJ wording in next week's Outlook Report may shape expectations for rates after December as it balances broader inflation against signs of cooling labour market and domestic demand.