甲醇期货主力合约再度触及涨停，涨幅6%，现报3389元/吨。

China-listed Brazil-themed ETFs plunged; Huaxia and E Fund Brazil ETFs hit limit-down in the opening auction after news that President Lula won re-election.

After the recent sharp sell-off, multiple A-share indicators are near historical troughs: volumes and turnover have collapsed to cycle lows, while ETF-led medium-to-long-term inflows have accelerated and stabilization efforts have intensified. Stabilization mechanisms are becoming more institutionalized, reinforcing a policy floor. Market bottoms tend to lead fundamental bottoms; corporate earnings and PPI remain on an improving trend, which is supportive for A-shares. External risks are limited by marked deleveraging in Japan and Korea, but US equity AI rerating appears shifting from investment expansion toward capital-return validation; together with elevated US Treasury yields and rising oil, this constrains easing and keeps higher rates a cap on valuations. Given historical precedence that ETF-supported troughs often precede rebounds, expect near-term range-bound bottoming with structural opportunities. Maintain balanced allocations and monitor key catalysts over the next two weeks. For the next 3–6 months: in a high-rate environment prioritize companies with strong earnings/cashflow (the 'numerator') and healthy shareholding/liquidity structures; when rates roll over, broaden exposure to technology; await further domestic policy follow-through to shift positioning toward domestic-demand beneficiaries.