If the Fed holds rates this week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a familiar task: convince investors the Fed remains committed to curbing inf while explaining why officials chose not to raise rates. That echoes July, when markets accepted a hold but pushed back on Warsh’s reluctance to signal further tightening. After September’s hike, markets again expect a hold this week and have shifted pricing toward a likely second hike in December. Santander US Capital Markets chief economist Stephen Stanley:

If the Fed holds rates this week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a familiar task: convince investors the Fed remains committed to curbing inf while explaining why officials chose not to raise rates. That echoes July, when markets accepted a hold but pushed back on Warsh’s reluctance to signal further tightening. After September’s hike, markets again expect a hold this week and have shifted pricing toward a likely second hike in December. Santander US Capital Markets chief economist Stephen Stanley: "I expect no change now but I do expect them to hike again in December. The tricky part of communication this meeting is Warsh needs to explain why they did not act in October while still leaving open the possibility of a December increase."