CITIC Securities says rapid AI-led growth has lifted headline US activity but
masks sectoral divergence: production and credit are overheated while employment
and household demand remain soft. The firm judges Fed policy is more likely to
be swayed by political forces than by fundamentals; some Fed officials may
coordinate with the Treasury to compress long-term yields. Post-midterms,
reduced uncertainty could be a short-term positive for risk assets, though
increased political polarization could create fresh shocks. Asset scenarios:
base-case “hot continuation” — US equities, gold and China A-shares outperform,
bonds lag; alternative “cold diffusion” — US Treasuries, gold and A-shares lead.
Gold is bullish across scenarios.
