【股指期货早盘开盘】沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.19%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约涨0.24%，中证500股指期货（IC）主力合约涨0.27%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.15%。

美元/以色列新谢克尔现涨约1%，报3.084，以色列出口民调显示选情胶着，预示以色列总理内塔尼亚胡受挫。

CITIC Securities says rapid AI-led growth has lifted headline US activity but masks sectoral divergence: production and credit are overheated while employment and household demand remain soft. The firm judges Fed policy is more likely to be swayed by political forces than by fundamentals; some Fed officials may coordinate with the Treasury to compress long-term yields. Post-midterms, reduced uncertainty could be a short-term positive for risk assets, though increased political polarization could create fresh shocks. Asset scenarios: base-case “hot continuation” — US equities, gold and China A-shares outperform, bonds lag; alternative “cold diffusion” — US Treasuries, gold and A-shares lead. Gold is bullish across scenarios.