ING analyst Chris Turner said the UK budget, due at 20:30 Beijing time, could be positive for the pound and UK gilts and may narrow the UK-Germany government bond yield spread. He said the UK is among the few G7 economies with fiscal trajectories moving in the right direction toward 2027. With rising inflation pushing more workers into higher income-tax bands, Turner expects the budget deficit to come in below 4% of GDP. He added that unless the budget unexpectedly includes growth-boosting fisca

ING analyst Chris Turner said the UK budget, due at 20:30 Beijing time, could be positive for the pound and UK gilts and may narrow the UK-Germany government bond yield spread. He said the UK is among the few G7 economies with fiscal trajectories moving in the right direction toward 2027. With rising inflation pushing more workers into higher income-tax bands, Turner expects the budget deficit to come in below 4% of GDP. He added that unless the budget unexpectedly includes growth-boosting fiscal measures that would shock gilts, EUR/GBP is likely to remain under pressure and could fall toward about 0.8315.