JP Morgan analysts say the U.S. Treasury may raise short-term borrowing in next
week’s quarterly refunding plan. JP Morgan projects net marketable borrowing
from private investors of $2.038t this year, rising to $2.202t in 2027. Bill and
medium- to long-term Treasury auction sizes are expected to remain unchanged for
now and increase from Aug 2027, with the 2- to 10-year sector likely to see the
biggest bumps. JP Morgan expects short-term issuance to pick up earlier;
excluding Fed purchases and repo operations, privately held outstanding
short-term Treasury bills would increase by $401bn in calendar 2026 and $991bn
in 2027 — the largest short-term bill issuance since 2023.