EUR/GBP slipped to about 0.8365 from an intraday high of 0.8374, remaining in
Wednesday’s range and extending a five‑week decline of roughly 2.8% as markets
await the ECB policy decision later today. Markets largely expect the ECB to
hold its key rate at 2.5% while keeping a December hike on the table because
euro‑area inflation remains above target. Commerzbank flagged elevated French
public debt as the main risk, saying its scale raises the chance of a renewed
euro‑area credit shock. Commerzbank analysts added that each ECB rate rise would
push bond yields and interest costs higher, worsening France’s debt dynamics,
and expect the ECB to be cautious about announcing further tightening next year;
base effects should also lower headline inflation next year, supporting a
wait‑and‑see stance.
