Oriental Jincheng says the Fed’s hawkish stance at the October meeting remains.
Two FOMC voters favored additional hikes and Governor Cook—previously seen as a
centrist—filed a first-time dissent, indicating a lower tolerance for inflation
risk. Most members preferred to monitor the effects of September’s increase,
moving policy into a cautious, data-dependent phase. From 2027 the Fed will
reduce the number of formal rate-decision meetings to create strategic space for
balance-sheet framework changes; this should have limited direct impact on rate
decisions but will amplify market pricing volatility and tactical positioning.
With oil prices high and core inflation sticky, Oriental Jincheng sees a high
probability of a 25bp hike at the December meeting to a 4.00%–4.25% range, and
says further hikes in 2027 remain possible.
