日本央行：展望报告中的预测未考虑拟议的食品临时性消费税下调的影响。

美元指数DXY向上触及102，日内涨0.11%。

Wanlian Securities says the current El Niño is confirmed as super-strong and may be the strongest on record since systematic monitoring. Climate impacts will propagate along the agricultural value chain: Southeast and South Asia heat and drought plus constrained Panama Canal transits will pressure supply via lower output and higher landed costs. Midstream effects vary by commodity: palm oil has the highest probability of production losses but the latest timing for cuts; sugar’s net impact depends on Brazil’s sugar-to-ethanol crush ratio; corn is more sensitive because of low inventories; rubber requires close monitoring of producing-region stocks and downstream demand. Downstream seed, agrochemical and livestock sectors typically lag by about one year. Weather risk appears largely priced in; further alpha will depend on realised production shortfalls. Positioning should focus on crops with concentrated production, thin inventories and policy alignment.