State Street Global Advisors chief fixed-income strategist Masahiko Loo said the BOJ’s decision was unremarkable but the economic outlook represents an important shift. The BOJ now acknowledges potential inflation near 2%, bringing its assessment closer to reality and noting that conventional inflation measures have been at or above target for much of the past four years. Mirroring the Fed and ECB, the BOJ has little reason to move urgently—especially with US midterms likely to increase FX and b

State Street Global Advisors chief fixed-income strategist Masahiko Loo said the BOJ’s decision was unremarkable but the economic outlook represents an important shift. The BOJ now acknowledges potential inflation near 2%, bringing its assessment closer to reality and noting that conventional inflation measures have been at or above target for much of the past four years. Mirroring the Fed and ECB, the BOJ has little reason to move urgently—especially with US midterms likely to increase FX and bond volatility—so Governor Ueda can remain data-dependent, keep a rate-hike option at each meeting and likely defer the next hike to around the turn of the year. Policy tilt is hawkish; State Street’s baseline expectation for the terminal rate is about 1.75% as Japan joins the global synchronized tightening cycle.