AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said that after a run of hawkish comments and inflation printing above expectations, failure by the RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA to raise rates further on Tuesday would damage its credibility in sticking to its inflation target. He said the expected hike may not be unanimous. The RBA’s statement will continue to flag that further increases could be required. While the risk of a sixth hike in December or February to 5.1% remains high, it is not yet the base case.

2026-10-30

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said that after a run of hawkish comments and inflation printing above expectations, failure by the RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA to raise rates further on Tuesday would damage its credibility in sticking to its inflation target. He said the expected hike may not be unanimous. The RBA’s statement will continue to flag that further increases could be required. While the risk of a sixth hike in December or February to 5.1% remains high, it is not yet the base case.