Sterling traded around $1.3380 in early European trade on Friday, holding gains as markets digest the UK autumn budget and await the Bank of England's policy decision. Brown Brothers Harriman said the UK October 2026 budget is neutral for the pound and gilts, noting the government has marginally tightened fiscal policy while planning a modest increase in debt issuance. BBH expects the interest-excluded, cyclically adjusted primary balance to improve from a 0.3% of GDP deficit in 2026/27 to a 0.5

Sterling traded around $1.3380 in early European trade on Friday, holding gains as markets digest the UK autumn budget and await the Bank of England's policy decision. Brown Brothers Harriman said the UK October 2026 budget is neutral for the pound and gilts, noting the government has marginally tightened fiscal policy while planning a modest increase in debt issuance. BBH expects the interest-excluded, cyclically adjusted primary balance to improve from a 0.3% of GDP deficit in 2026/27 to a 0.5% of GDP surplus in 2027/28, implying fiscal tightening equal to a 0.8% GDP drag versus 0.6% projected in March. BBH warned that the additional tightening may be too mild to materially curb market expectations of roughly 125bps of Bank of England tightening over the next 12 months.