Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said US midterms are a key test for oil as investors price how outcomes will affect US action in the Middle East, the likely duration of supply disruptions and the geopolitical risk premium in crude. If Democrats take one or both chambers, congressional scrutiny of war policy, challenges to military appropriations and post‑Congress pressure for diplomatic solutions could intensify. "Markets may immediately pre‑price that pressure," she said. If credible negot

Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said US midterms are a key test for oil as investors price how outcomes will affect US action in the Middle East, the likely duration of supply disruptions and the geopolitical risk premium in crude. If Democrats take one or both chambers, congressional scrutiny of war policy, challenges to military appropriations and post‑Congress pressure for diplomatic solutions could intensify. "Markets may immediately pre‑price that pressure," she said. If credible negotiation progress follows and shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz improves, oil could fall persistently. However, a weaker Republican position increasing diplomatic pressure does not necessarily mean the geopolitical risk premium will decline.