The IEA warns an Iran war would disrupt supplies and intensify competition among
buyers, creating severe tightness in the global gas market. It now forecasts
this year’s global LNG supply will fall a record 3%, roughly 20 bcm. Strait of
Hormuz shipping disruptions and Iranian strikes on regional infrastructure have
sharply cut Qatar and UAE exports; about 20% of LNG shipments previously
transited the Strait. The IEA expects Hormuz trade flows to remain severely
disrupted at least through year-end. New North American and African projects
plus higher feedgas to existing plants in Africa, Asia and Russia lifted
non-Gulf output 14% March–October, offsetting roughly two-thirds of Gulf losses,
but the IEA still estimates global LNG output fell about 6% during the conflict.
