U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October, roughly three times the 59,000 forecast; the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Markets now price a 79% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, up from 67%, while the chance of unchanged policy falls to 22%. Strong hiring again increases pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy.

2026-11-06

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October, roughly three times the 59,000 forecast; the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Markets now price a 79% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, up from 67%, while the chance of unchanged policy falls to 22%. Strong hiring again increases pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy.