Nomura says Australian financial conditions are already restrictive and its base case is that the cash rate has peaked. It assigns roughly a 33% probability of one further RBA hike, most likely around February 2027. Thereafter Nomura expects the RBA to begin several rate cuts from about August 2027, contingent on rising unemployment, lower oil prices and confidence that inflation will return to target.

2026-11-09

Nomura says Australian financial conditions are already restrictive and its base case is that the cash rate has peaked. It assigns roughly a 33% probability of one further RBA hike, most likely around February 2027. Thereafter Nomura expects the RBA to begin several rate cuts from about August 2027, contingent on rising unemployment, lower oil prices and confidence that inflation will return to target.