The French central bank expects GDP to return to mild growth in Q4 but says political, fiscal and social uncertainty has risen markedly. A monthly survey of 8,500 firms showed industrial and services activity expanded in October and is expected to continue in November, while construction is near stagnation. Firms flagged greater concerns about the political situation, public finances and fuel prices; firms and households are becoming more cautious, delaying projects and lengthening decision cycl

The French central bank expects GDP to return to mild growth in Q4 but says political, fiscal and social uncertainty has risen markedly. A monthly survey of 8,500 firms showed industrial and services activity expanded in October and is expected to continue in November, while construction is near stagnation. Firms flagged greater concerns about the political situation, public finances and fuel prices; firms and households are becoming more cautious, delaying projects and lengthening decision cycles, making the near-term business outlook more uncertain. Pass-through of higher input costs is limited—only 12% of industrial firms and 9% of service firms raised prices in October. Governor Emmanuel Moulin said recent data have been weak and the bank may cut its 2026 growth forecast, currently 0.4%. France has not recorded quarterly growth so far this year and narrowly avoided a recession.