SEB economists Pia Fromet and Markus Weiden say the ECB could raise its policy
rate by 25bps at Thursday’s meeting. Rising energy prices present upside
inflation risk and may prompt a pre-emptive move because indirect and
second‑round effects have not yet appeared in the data. They expect LAGARDE to
spend substantial time at the press conference on updated staff forecasts and
risk assessment. Elevated uncertainty will be the focal point, supporting a
wait‑and‑see bias thereafter, and the ECB is unlikely to pre‑commit to further
hikes.
