FITCH: PRICING POWER SHIELDS US TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FROM HIGH OIL PRICES

1. Goldman Sachs - FOMC expected to leave funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. - Three dissents expected in favor of a 25bp cut: Governors Bowman, Miran, and Waller. - Two additional rate cuts now forecast for September and December. - Terminal rate forecast at 3–3.25%, with probability-weighted Fed outlook more dovish than baseline. 2. Standard Chartered - FOMC likely to defer action until output vs. price effects are clearer. - Hawkish risks: core PCE, fed funds projections, and potential dissents. 3. J.P. Morgan - Unchanged funds rate of 3.50–3.75% widely expected. - Median dot from December forecast one 25bp cut this year. - Close call between no cuts or one cut for 2026; lean slightly toward one cut. - Subsequent years projected to gradually drift down toward neutral. - J.P. Morgan’s own forecast: no cuts this year. 4. Deutsche Bank - Average probability of no change: 89%. Confidence varies: fixed income 96%, research 94%, traders 93%, portfolio managers 85%. - Dot plot expected to show unchanged median projection: 3.4% for 2026, 3.0% long-run. - Notable hawkish skew: 36% expect 2026 median >3.4%, 25% expect long-run dot higher. 5. BofA - Powell likely to adopt "wait & see" approach in response to oil shock. - US rates & USD likely little impacted by March FOMC. - Rates view: receive M8, steeper 5s30s, long 5Y real. 6. ANZ - FOMC expected to leave funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. - Decision likely non-unanimous, with some members dissenting in favor of a cut due to monetary policy pressures on the labor market.

美國國家情報總監加巴德：如果伊朗政權得以存續，它將啓動歷時多年的行動，以重建其導彈和無人機部隊。