A rare dislocation in China’s money markets is signaling excess liquidity and slowing credit demand, as the overnight repo rate fell to a near three-year low, widening its gap with the PBOC’s seven-day policy rate to the widest since September 2024. The divergence, despite recent liquidity drains, suggests banks are flush with cash but struggling to lend. Analysts including Kelvin Lam of Pantheon Macroeconomics said weak loan demand is weighing on growth, while NCD yields have dropped to record

A rare dislocation in China’s money markets is signaling excess liquidity and slowing credit demand, as the overnight repo rate fell to a near three-year low, widening its gap with the PBOC’s seven-day policy rate to the widest since September 2024. The divergence, despite recent liquidity drains, suggests banks are flush with cash but struggling to lend. Analysts including Kelvin Lam of Pantheon Macroeconomics said weak loan demand is weighing on growth, while NCD yields have dropped to record lows. Liu Jie of Tianfeng Securities warned April yuan loans could contract, while Yu Liu of Huaxi Securities said the PBOC may allow tools to mature to absorb liquidity. Samuel Tse of DBS said policy remains accommodative. The PBOC withdrew 890 billion yuan last month and kept reverse repo operations minimal, with potential bond issuance seen helping absorb excess funds.