CHINA MIIT: INDUSTRIAL ROBOT OUTPUT RISES 33.2% YOY; INTEGRATED CIRCUIT PRODUCTION UP 24.3%

David Solomon said US recession risk could shift rapidly depending on the administration’s response to the Iran war, noting it may be “only one tweet away,” reflecting market sensitivity to posts by President Donald Trump on Truth Social. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates recession odds at about 20%, versus a 15% base case. Solomon expects oil to stay at $80–$100 per barrel for three to six months, but warned severe escalation could push prices to $170. Crude has surged about 30% since the conflict, briefly nearing $120 in March before easing to around $95, with sustained high energy costs likely to weigh on economic data later this year.

美聯儲主席提名人沃什：無法確定《聯邦職位空缺法》是否適用於美聯儲。