US
- Fed (Wed, Apr 29): Rates expected unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%
Focus on guidance as Jerome Powell’s likely final meeting before Kevin Warsh
takes over in May, reaction to energy-driven inflation
- Data: Thu: Q1 GDP (~2.1%) and Core PCE (0.3% MoM); Fri: ISM Manufacturing PMI
(April)
- Earnings (Big Tech): Wed: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta; Thu: Apple
Focus on AI capex, margins, and Apple CEO transition
Middle East Situation
US–Iran tensions ongoing (8th week)
Apr 25–27: U.S. envoys arrive and initial high-level negotiations begin in
Islamabad, focusing on Iran’s proposal, Strait of Hormuz access, and U.S. naval
blockade terms. Potential decisive phase, including possible breakthrough, U.S.
VP standby visit, or extension of ceasefire/negotiations if no agreement is
reached.
China
- Policy: Expected Politburo meeting on economic direction
- Data: Thu: April PMIs (manufacturing + services), risk of dip below 50 on
weaker demand and supply disruptions
Fri: Hong Kong market closed (Labor Day)
Other Central Banks
BoJ (Tue): Hold at 0.75%, watch hawkish tone on wages
BoC (Wed): Hold at 2.25%
ECB (Thu): Hold at 2.00%
BoE (Thu): Hold at 3.75%, focus on energy shock impact
Brazil (Wed): Possible 25bp cut to 14.50%, inflation data could delay easing
Other Key Data
Australia (Wed): Q1 CPI, key for RBA May decision
Eurozone (Thu): Inflation + Q1 GDP (EU, Germany, France, Italy, Spain)
South Korea (Fri): April trade data, semiconductor exports key for global tech
demand
