IRAN'S NOUR: CLASHES ONGOING BETWEEN IRAN, US SHIPS NEAR HORMUZ

Citi - Forecasts April NFP at -15K vs consensus +65K. - Expects unemployment rate to rise from 4.3% to 4.4%. - Says payroll volatility is increasingly being discounted by Fed officials. - Views weak payroll prints as less recessionary due to flat labor force growth. - Still expects three 25bp Fed cuts in September, October, and December. MUFG - Forecasts April NFP at +45K, slightly below consensus. - Expects unemployment rate to tick up to 4.4%. - Notes March job-loss contribution to unemployment was unusually negative and should normalize in April. - Believes oil and gasoline price shocks will have minimal near-term labor market impact. - Says broader economic shocks take time to feed into employment data. FOREX.com - Market consensus: +65K NFP, +0.3% m/m earnings, unemployment at 4.3%. - Leading indicators point to a potentially stronger print of 110K-150K. - Says the US labor market remains resilient despite AI concerns and geopolitical risks. - Notes the economy has averaged roughly 70K jobs added per month this year. - Expects continuation of the “low hire, low fire” labor market regime. FXStreet - Investors expect NFP to rise by 62K after March’s 178K increase. - Expects unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%. - Forecasts annual wage growth to rise to 3.8% from 3.5%. - Says markets are looking for signs of labor market stabilization after recent volatility. TD Securities - Forecasts NFP at +80K. - Expects +85K private payroll gains and -5K government job losses. - Sees healthcare and leisure & hospitality driving job growth. - Expects unemployment rate to stay at 4.3%. - Forecasts average hourly earnings at +0.2% m/m and 3.7% y/y.

SOME SOURCES SAY THAT THE SOUND OF SEVERAL EXPLOSIONS IN BANDAR ABBAS WAS RELATED TO AIR DEFENSE COUNTERING TWO SMALL DRONES - TASNIM