A closure of the Strait of Hormuz through August could trigger an economic
downturn approaching the scale of 2008, according to Rapidan Energy Group. The
firm’s base case assumes reopening in July, with oil demand down 2.6 million
barrels a day and Brent peaking near $130 this summer. A longer disruption could
deepen supply deficits, potentially driving a rare global oil demand contraction
in 2026. Rapidan said oil prices have nearly doubled since late February amid
war-related disruptions, warning that further spikes could amplify macroeconomic
vulnerabilities despite less oil-intensive economies and stronger monetary
policy frameworks.
