Doug Bandow, senior fellow at US conservative think tank the Cato Institute, said the main confrontation between the US and Iran has moved to the economic front as both sides implement a dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. "Trump's position is very difficult. He closed the Strait of Hormuz, inadvertently gave Iran a very powerful weapon, and he is unwilling to risk US warships to try to open it," Bandow said. "It's hard for him not to reach an agreement that satisfies Iran." Bandow cast doubt

WTI原油期貨跌破91美元/桶，日內跌3.11%。

Ed Yardeni, senior market strategist at Yardeni Research, dismissed concerns that US stocks are in a bubble, saying the current rebound is driven by "Fabulous Earnings Momentum" (FEMO) rather than speculation. He said if the US economy can avoid a recession over the next few years, the S&P 500's current forward P/E of about 20–22x looks reasonable. Yardeni coined the term FEMO to distinguish the present advance from "FOMO" (fear of missing out), which he described as hope- and speculation-driven rather than fundamentals-driven. He conceded that outsized recent gains in some semiconductor names give the market a "melt-up" feel. Under a "roaring 2020s" scenario, he expects the S&P 500 could reach 10,000 before 2030, implying roughly a 33% rise from current levels. Year-to-date he has observed only one notable sell-off, in March, and he said another similar sell-off is unlikely before year-end. His FEMO thesis also underpins his 2026 S&P 500 target of 8,250, which ranks highest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.