Night session open: China’s main futures contracts were mostly higher. 20# rubber rose over 2%; rubber and fuel oil gained more than 1%. Shanghai tin, PET bottle flake, rapeseed oil and soybean oil climbed around 1%. DCE Soybean No.1, benzene, offset paper and Shanghai lead slipped modestly.

Gold slid to a two-month low as a stalled U.S.-Iran situation coincided with rising Fed hawkish risk. Markets had priced an imminent deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but there is no official confirmation—only noise and rumors. Limited reciprocal strikes occurred recently while the U.S. says the ceasefire still holds. A growing number of Fed policymakers favor abandoning dovish leanings, increasing the odds of a hawkish outcome at the June FOMC. If tensions remain unchanged, persistent inf and resilient U.S. data raise the risk of a hawkish surprise. Near term, resolution and Strait reopening would likely push oil lower and revive easing/cut expectations, supporting gold; prolonged closure and sustained high oil would increase pressure for Fed tightening, weighing on bullion.

美聯儲副主席傑斐遜：在貨幣政策溝通中，必須強調監測與供應衝擊和投資需求激增相關的二次效應。