LMEX, which tracks six main LME metals, is up 5.5% month-to-date as of
Thursday—the biggest monthly rise since January. Macquarie warns sulfur supply,
a key feedstock for copper, has tightened due to the war, raising the risk of
output cuts in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Macquarie strategist Alice Fox
wrote that even if the US and Iran reach a deal, clearing the Persian Gulf
sulfur shipping backlog will take long enough to likely push the copper market
to a production-cutting tipping point. She estimates up to 94,000 tonnes of DRC
copper output per month could be at risk, with partial cuts possibly announced
as early as July.
