T. Rowe Price chief U.S. economist Blerina Uruci says markets may still be underestimating the risk of further Fed tightening. Since early May the Iran conflict has persisted longer than expected, pushing oil higher while U.S. growth remains resilient. Uruci notes the Fed can look through a temporary energy shock, but sustained oil and import-price pressure could lift inflation expectations, alter wage dynamics and corporate pricing, increasing the case for tighter policy. Her base case is the f

T. Rowe Price chief U.S. economist Blerina Uruci says markets may still be underestimating the risk of further Fed tightening. Since early May the Iran conflict has persisted longer than expected, pushing oil higher while U.S. growth remains resilient. Uruci notes the Fed can look through a temporary energy shock, but sustained oil and import-price pressure could lift inflation expectations, alter wage dynamics and corporate pricing, increasing the case for tighter policy. Her base case is the federal funds rate remains unchanged over the next 12 months; she assigns a 45% probability to unchanged, 35% to a hike by year-end or early 2027, and 20% to a cut.