Former Bank of Japan policy board member Sakurai, who served 2016–21, said the BOJ is likely to raise rates next month and that the meeting will determine whether policymakers avoid falling behind inflation. He warned that failing to hike risks missing a tightening window and, given sustained uncertainty from the Iran conflict, could force an indefinite delay of further increases. The yen is trading near levels seen during last month’s official intervention, raising the risk that higher import c

Former Bank of Japan policy board member Sakurai, who served 2016–21, said the BOJ is likely to raise rates next month and that the meeting will determine whether policymakers avoid falling behind inflation. He warned that failing to hike risks missing a tightening window and, given sustained uncertainty from the Iran conflict, could force an indefinite delay of further increases. The yen is trading near levels seen during last month’s official intervention, raising the risk that higher import costs will push inflation up. Tokyo CPI, a BOJ focus, rose 1.3% YoY in May—below forecasts and the smallest gain in four years—largely due to a temporary Tokyo water-bill cut; Sakurai called the print a technical distortion and said core inflation could reaccelerate later this year. Political risk remains: Sanae Takaichi is viewed as a potential restraint on tightening, but Sakurai said Bessent’s recent visit, which signaled broad support for further hikes, may allow political actors to defer to the BOJ’s judgment.