ADP reported May private payrolls rose by the largest monthly gain since Jan 2025, indicating the labor market may be accelerating despite higher energy costs linked to the Iran war. The data support a view of gradually improving labor conditions—vacancies rising and layoffs remaining low—and, if confirmed by official government employment reports, could shift odds toward Fed hikes rather than cuts in coming months.

2026-06-03

ADP reported May private payrolls rose by the largest monthly gain since Jan 2025, indicating the labor market may be accelerating despite higher energy costs linked to the Iran war. The data support a view of gradually improving labor conditions—vacancies rising and layoffs remaining low—and, if confirmed by official government employment reports, could shift odds toward Fed hikes rather than cuts in coming months.