May nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, driving US interest rate futures to raise bets on a Federal Reserve hike in December. LSEG data show the futures market now prices a 65% probability of a December rate increase, up from 48% before the report. Markets still broadly expect the Fed to keep the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% at the June meeting. Stronger-than-expected jobs data point to a resilient US labor market, lowering near-term rate-cut odds and increasing the probability investors as

May nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, driving US interest rate futures to raise bets on a Federal Reserve hike in December. LSEG data show the futures market now prices a 65% probability of a December rate increase, up from 48% before the report. Markets still broadly expect the Fed to keep the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% at the June meeting. Stronger-than-expected jobs data point to a resilient US labor market, lowering near-term rate-cut odds and increasing the probability investors assign to a future restart of hikes to counter inflationary pressure.