Institutional analysts on US nonfarm payrolls say markets now price nearly a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike at the Oct. 28 meeting. They flagged political risk — if a Fed official announced a hike before the midterms, it could prompt a reaction from Trump.

International ocean freight has risen sharply: the container shipping index (Europe) front-month futures are up more than 50% since late April. Major carriers Maersk and CMA CGM have issued multiple rate notices and several routes report acute space tightness. Market participants point to Middle East geopolitical disruptions raising shipping costs, greater supply-chain segmentation and de-risking driving restocking, and concentrated overseas pre-shipment ahead of the US/EU H2 consumption peak as key drivers. The resulting volume surge has rapidly tightened capacity, but industry sources say freight-price direction for H2 remains unclear.

ChinaBond Valuation Center said the floating‑rate bond market has expanded and market demand for reference precision has risen. It proposes two new valuation metrics for floating‑rate bonds: valuation PV01 (rate‑basis‑point value) and valuation spread PV01 (spread‑basis‑point value). The existing PV01 metric would be limited to zero‑coupon, discount, interest‑at‑maturity (bullet) and coupon‑bearing fixed‑rate bonds. The proposal is open for public consultation under the ChinaBond yield curve and valuation principles.