Israel struck military targets inside Iran after an Iranian missile attack,
threatening a fragile ceasefire and disrupting talks. Oil prices surged, with
Brent crude up as much as 5% intraday. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said
the weekend escalation exposed the ceasefire's fragility and increased
geopolitical risk — the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed longer than
expected and Iran may further restrict Red Sea shipping. Harris Kourshid, CIO at
Karobaar Capital LP, said markets had underestimated deep divisions among
parties and were oscillating between pricing in a deal and pricing reality. He
added that even if the U.S. and Iran reach a peace agreement, oil flows would
not immediately normalize: sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz must be cleared,
closed fields may take months to restart, and drone and missile damage to energy
infrastructure requires repair.
