Oxford Economics head of Japan research Shigeto Nagai said the Bank of Japan is more likely to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00% in June rather than July, citing rising global inflation concerns and market pricing of further Fed hikes over the next year. He warned a delayed hike would disappoint markets and could trigger further yen weakness, but flagged uncertainty from the Middle East conflict — and Japan's sensitivity to trade shocks — as a reason for caution.

2026-06-08

Oxford Economics head of Japan research Shigeto Nagai said the Bank of Japan is more likely to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00% in June rather than July, citing rising global inflation concerns and market pricing of further Fed hikes over the next year. He warned a delayed hike would disappoint markets and could trigger further yen weakness, but flagged uncertainty from the Middle East conflict — and Japan's sensitivity to trade shocks — as a reason for caution.