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Economists say the Reserve Bank of India is increasingly likely to tighten policy in coming months to mirror regional peers that have tightened amid Middle East-driven inflation pressures. Governor signalled last Friday that policymakers could raise rates if inflationary pressures become more broad-based and persistent. Last week the RBI left the policy rate at 5.25% but raised its inflation forecast for the year ending March 2027 from 4.6% to 5.1%. HSBC India chief economist Pranjul Bhandari said the comments open the door to a rate hike in August — the first since February 2023 — and has moved his call forward to hikes in August and October versus prior expectations in late-2026 and Q1 2027. Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs still model a 50 bp move in late-2026 taking the policy rate to 5.75%. Analysts say a rate hike is largely a matter of timing.

習近平同金正恩舉行會談。