Guojin Securities chief strategist Mu Yiling says AI capex as a share of global GDP is rising rapidly and has real cyclical support, comparable to China’s 2005–07 urbanization-driven growth cycle; capital is concentrating in AI hardware. He sees room for further gains in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, while A-share growth valuations have expanded faster than US peers and some profits are priced near the most optimistic levels of the 2005–07 cycle—yet valuation alone does not imply a marke

Guojin Securities chief strategist Mu Yiling says AI capex as a share of global GDP is rising rapidly and has real cyclical support, comparable to China’s 2005–07 urbanization-driven growth cycle; capital is concentrating in AI hardware. He sees room for further gains in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, while A-share growth valuations have expanded faster than US peers and some profits are priced near the most optimistic levels of the 2005–07 cycle—yet valuation alone does not imply a market top and the market lacks rotation conditions. The AI narrative is weighing on growth outside the US; A-shares are hitting new highs even as breadth (rising-stock share) contracts. Mu judges the market has entered a high-volatility regime similar to early 2007 and recommends an active-defensive allocation: priority to dividend sectors (oil, coal, power, city commercial banks), secondary emphasis on upstream tech (semiconductors/AI materials, equipment and manufacturing); medium-term, once AI headwinds ease, favor industrial metals, general and specialized machinery and export-oriented names.