歐洲斯托克50指數期貨下跌0.9%，德國DAX指數期貨下跌0.8%，英國富時指數期貨下跌0.9%。

All major dealers expect a 25bp ECB hike. Danske says its technical assumptions (c.68bp) underpin two hikes this year. SEB expects a pre-emptive 25bp, will not commit policy beyond June and will focus on forecast revisions and Middle East risks. ING is hawkish, flags rising inflation risk and leaves the door open for further tightening. ANZ sees 25bp in June and a further 25bp in September, not the start of a large tightening cycle but wary of a bigger-than-expected energy shock. Crédit Agricole expects 25bp, judges growth downside rising and second‑round inflation limited, so the hike is dovish with limited euro upside. Nordea expects 25bp and a relatively hawkish signal from Lagarde; it does not expect a clear July hike signal but says updated forecasts will support further tightening. MUFG expects 25bp, leaves option for more, projects +50bp this year with July still possible. TD Securities expects 25bp and little change to the statement, keeping a data‑dependent, meeting‑by‑meeting approach. OCBC expects a precautionary 25bp, sees higher inflation expectations and slower growth; absent new catalysts euro gains will be capped. DBS expects 25bp with a cautious but hawkish tone; further H2 hikes remain possible and outlook depends on Middle East developments. UBS expects 25bp, unlikely to signal July, with updated forecasts showing some economic deterioration but not as severe as March’s adverse scenario. Societe Generale expects 25bp from a neutral start and another 25bp in September; its forecasts may lift 2027 core inflation to ~2.5% while GDP downside remains material. Berenberg warns a 25bp hike could be a mistake given Iran‑driven energy shocks and weak domestic demand. Natixis sees a 25bp move with a moderately dovish tone; assigns 35%/55% odds to a second hike in Jul–Sep depending on Strait of Hormuz developments. Brown Brothers Harriman expects 25bp and says weaker growth and downward revisions could push EUR/USD toward 1.14, though downside is limited.

Tehran University professor Fouad Izadi said recent US strikes on Iran’s southern radar and missile sites will not materially alter Iranian decision‑making. He warned Iran is intent on keeping control of the Strait of Hormuz and is prepared to pay any price for that leverage, saying control has shifted to the strait itself rather than to Tehran. Izadi added Iran does not depend on adjacent Gulf facilities to influence access to the strait, noting Tehran’s long‑range ballistic missiles and drones, and said a blockade or closure can only be resolved through negotiation; he argued continued military pressure is unlikely to achieve US policy objectives over the long term.