TD Securities rates strategist said markets have fully priced a 25bp ECB hike tonight and the bank’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, which should support slightly firmer euro-area rates. In the base case the strategist expects a 25bp move with no major statement changes; the statement will continue to flag two-way risks to inflation and growth and maintain reliance on incoming data. Under this scenario the 10-year German Bund yield could fall about 3bps.