UNCTAD's June Global Trade Update projects global lithium demand will increase
353% between 2024 and 2040 and graphite demand 131%. Clean-technology demand
share is expected to rise; lithium's share of demand is forecast to climb from
62% in 2024 to 87% by 2040. UNCTAD says rising demand for energy-transition
minerals — lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earths — is reshaping global
trade. Supply is concentrated across reserves, mining, processing and refining,
with processing and refining particularly concentrated and higher value-added.
For 2025 UNCTAD projects the Democratic Republic of Congo will account for 74%
of global cobalt output, Indonesia 67% of nickel output and China 69% of
rare-earth output.
