Berenberg analysts say the Bank of England is likely to be more reluctant to raise rates than the ECB, citing a weaker UK labour market versus the euro area and a reduced inflationary role from services. They note UK policy was already tighter than the euro area before the energy shock and fiscal settings remain constrained. After a strong start to the year, ongoing Iran-related headwinds are slowing activity. Post-COVID shifts in seasonal consumption have created a statistical illusion that ove

Berenberg analysts say the Bank of England is likely to be more reluctant to raise rates than the ECB, citing a weaker UK labour market versus the euro area and a reduced inflationary role from services. They note UK policy was already tighter than the euro area before the energy shock and fiscal settings remain constrained. After a strong start to the year, ongoing Iran-related headwinds are slowing activity. Post-COVID shifts in seasonal consumption have created a statistical illusion that overstates Q1; Berenberg forecasts summer stagnation, with QoQ GDP growth of 0% in Q2 and Q3.