Former BANK OF JAPAN chief economist Seisaku Kameda said a US‑Iran peace
agreement is unlikely to change expectations that the BANK OF JAPAN will deliver
two rate hikes this year. With inflation pressure rising, the bank is likely to
lift its short‑term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at Tuesday’s meeting. Kameda
said the April move would have come absent the Middle East war; reopening the
Strait of Hormuz could ease some upward pressure on the pace of tightening but
would not alter the bank’s intent to raise still‑low real borrowing costs at
roughly two hikes per year. He expects a second hike after June, most likely in
October or December. Governor UEDA will miss the June meeting for treatment of
an infectious hepatic cyst; Deputy Governor Shin'ichi Uchida will lead the
post‑meeting press conference and, Kameda said, is likely to reaffirm commitment
to further tightening while avoiding explicit timing guidance amid Middle East
uncertainty.
