Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing said he expects energy supply to
recover to roughly 80% of pre-disruption levels by end‑Q3. He warned oil flows
through the Strait of Hormuz may take longer to return to pre‑conflict levels
because tankers are out of position, production and refining need time to ramp
to full output, and insurance costs and availability for transits remain a
constraint. Gas supply could take longer to normalize after Iranian attacks on
Qatari facilities knocked about 17% of capacity offline.
