CITIC Securities says a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in late June would boost VLCC fleet efficiency. Phase 1: Gulf bunker fuel would likely flow first to fuel-short regions such as Southeast Asia, driving a temporary spike in freight rates; spot differentials and the pace of supply-chain normalization would be key drivers. Phase 2: inventory replenishment as Gulf producers raise output while consumers restock; a sustained inventory gap could be an important marginal variable over th

CITIC Securities says a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in late June would boost VLCC fleet efficiency. Phase 1: Gulf bunker fuel would likely flow first to fuel-short regions such as Southeast Asia, driving a temporary spike in freight rates; spot differentials and the pace of supply-chain normalization would be key drivers. Phase 2: inventory replenishment as Gulf producers raise output while consumers restock; a sustained inventory gap could be an important marginal variable over the next year. CITIC flags Q2 2026 quarterly results for major tanker owners could reach new highs and urges monitoring for a valuation inflection among oil-transport leaders.