Lyon Securities said easing Middle East tensions pushed oil down to $85/bbl but, despite market expectations of a return to ~$70, damage to production facilities and infrastructure bottlenecks mean global supply is unlikely to recover to pre-conflict levels within 6–12 months. The bank now expects H2 oil to remain above $80/bbl (1H average $94). It forecasts Chinese oil producers will post their strongest earnings and cash flow in years, with PetroChina (00857.HK) and CNOOC (00883.HK) Q2 EPS see

Lyon Securities said easing Middle East tensions pushed oil down to $85/bbl but, despite market expectations of a return to ~$70, damage to production facilities and infrastructure bottlenecks mean global supply is unlikely to recover to pre-conflict levels within 6–12 months. The bank now expects H2 oil to remain above $80/bbl (1H average $94). It forecasts Chinese oil producers will post their strongest earnings and cash flow in years, with PetroChina (00857.HK) and CNOOC (00883.HK) Q2 EPS seen rising about 50% YoY. Lyon views PetroChina and CNOOC as relatively defensive amid volatility given solid fundamentals and roughly 7% dividend yields. Lyon assigns OUTPERFORM to the three state oil majors, preferring PetroChina, then CNOOC, then Sinopec (00386.HK); price targets: PetroChina HK$12, CNOOC HK$36, Sinopec HK$4.9. The bank says CNOOC's removal from a US-related list could trigger re-rating, while Sinopec's Q2 profit may face headwinds.